The Dow hit a record high. Investors now wonder what the second half of the year will bring. This is what passes for news when nothing happens.
Stocks went up. People who own stocks feel good. People who don't own stocks feel bad. People who sold early feel worse. The financial media writes five hundred words about wondering.
Wondering is not analysis. Wondering is what you do when your screen is green and you have no idea why. The market climbed because more people bought than sold. That's it. That's the entire story. Everything else is a horoscope for people who wear Patagonia vests.
What will the second half bring? More wondering, presumably. Maybe some additional pondering. Perhaps a quarterly earnings call where a CEO says the word "headwinds" nine times and everyone nods like it means something.
Retail traders read this headline and think they missed the move. They didn't. They missed every move. They'll chase this one too, buy at the top, then wonder what the third quarter will bring. The answer is margin calls, but wondering sounds more professional.
Technical analysts don't wonder. We draw lines on charts until two of them cross, then we pretend that meant something. It's honest work. More honest than writing articles about people wondering.
The Dow rode into Monday at a record high. By Tuesday it could ride into a record low. By Wednesday everyone will wonder what happened. By Thursday someone will write an article explaining that stocks went down because more people sold than bought.
The second half will bring exactly what the first half brought: prices moving in directions that make sense only in hindsight, while investors wonder if they should have done the opposite of whatever they did.
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
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