Iran attacked a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz because the vessel refused to use Tehran's preferred maritime route. The preferred route goes through Iranian waters. The non-preferred route runs along Oman's coast and enjoys U.S. military protection. One route costs money and sovereignty. The other costs nothing and comes with an aircraft carrier.
The Pentagon responded with airstrikes. Retail traders immediately began googling "where is Hormuz" and "is this bullish for my SPY calls." The answer is no. It was never bullish for your SPY calls. Your SPY calls expired worthless because you bought them at 3:57 PM on a Friday with a delta of 0.003, not because Iran has strong opinions about shipping lanes.
Tehran's position makes perfect sense if you ignore every principle of international maritime law and basic economics. Why would any shipping company voluntarily route through waters controlled by a government that just attacked a ship for not routing through waters controlled by that government? It's the geopolitical equivalent of a protection racket, except the mob usually waits until you decline the offer before burning down your store.
The technical setup here is crystal clear. Resistance at "don't bomb commercial vessels." Support at "we will absolutely bomb commercial vessels if you don't pay the toll." The 50-day moving average is "this has nothing to do with your portfolio but you'll somehow lose money on it anyway."
Somewhere right now a day trader is drawing a trendline from this headline to his Robinhood account and wondering why crude oil futures don't accept market orders during extended hours. He will learn nothing from this experience. He will, however, learn that pattern day trader restrictions apply to his account approximately four trades too late.
Iran just turned the Strait of Hormuz into a parking meter that shoots back.
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