Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Ships stopped moving. Iranian tankers kept sailing through it anyway.
Nothing screams credible geopolitical crisis like the country issuing the blockade exempting itself from the blockade. It's the international relations equivalent of a gym closing but leaving the doors unlocked for employees. Everyone else stands outside confused while the staff runs laps.
Industry trackers watched Iranian tankers glide through the strait like it was a f*cking lazy river. No drama. No confrontation. Just vibes and crude oil.
Shipping companies halted operations because Iran said to halt operations. Iranian shipping companies did not halt operations because Iran did not mean Iranian shipping companies. This is what passes for strategy when you control a chokepoint but still need to export your way out of sanctions.
The Strait of Hormuz handles a third of global seaborne oil. Iran closes it every few years like clockwork. Everyone panics. Oil futures spike. Retail traders dump their life savings into energy ETFs at the peak. Iran reopens it. Prices collapse. The cycle repeats because nobody learns anything ever.
Some hedge fund analyst in Greenwich is currently modeling disruption scenarios while Iran's own tankers are already through the strait and halfway to China. He'll present his findings next week. The findings will be worthless. His bonus will not be.
Iran keeps closing a waterway it refuses to stop using. The world keeps pretending this is new information. Shipping stalls except for the ships that don't stall. Markets react to the headline instead of the summary. Retail traders buy the news and sell the bankruptcy.
Declaring something closed while using it yourself is not a blockade. It's a reservation system.
Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash
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