Stock futures climbed because U.S. and Iran decided to stop shooting at each other for a minute. Oil prices fell. These two facts are unrelated in every way that matters to your portfolio but CNBC needs you to believe they're connected or the segment doesn't work.
Geopolitical tension exists. Then it doesn't. Then futures go up. A retail trader in Michigan just convinced himself he predicted this. He didn't. He bought calls on Monday because his coworker's brother-in-law trades crypto and said something about volatility. Now he thinks he understands Middle Eastern diplomacy.
The technical setup was bearish until it wasn't. The 50-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average which means absolutely nothing because Iran doesn't consult your Fibonacci retracement before deciding whether to launch missiles. But sure. Draw more lines on your chart. Make them different colors this time. That'll help.
Oil dropped because supply concerns eased. Or because demand projections shifted. Or because a tanker changed course near the Strait of Hormuz. Pick whichever explanation makes you feel like you're informed. They're all guesses wrapped in jargon delivered by someone wearing a tie at 6 AM.
The week ahead will have no shortage of challenges for the major averages. That's the actual summary. It means nothing. Every week has challenges. Every week someone types that exact sentence into a financial newsletter and collects a paycheck. The challenges could be anything. Inflation. Deflation. A Fed speaker clearing his throat during a conference. Doesn't matter. The averages will do what they do and you'll read about why afterward.
Futures climb when they climb. They fall when they fall. Iran could launch every missile it owns tomorrow and your technical analysis would still be astrology for people who wear Patagonia vests.
Photo by Martin Sanchez on Unsplash
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