Used EV prices jumped 12% in a single month. Not year-over-year. Month-over-month. June to July. The Manheim Index measured this at wholesale auctions where dealers buy inventory they'll mark up another 20% before some guy named Derek finances it at 8.9% for 72 months.
The headline blames Iran and gas prices. Iran does not manufacture Chevy Bolts. Iran does not set the clearing price on three-year-old Nissan Leafs with 40,000 miles and one previous owner who definitely vaped in it. But sure. Let's connect two things that sound related and call it analysis.
Gas goes up. People panic. People suddenly remember EVs exist. People who spent two years saying they'd never buy an electric car because the grid runs on coal and what about the lithium mines stampede into used car lots like it's a f*cking Black Friday sale. Demand spikes. Prices spike. This is not a geopolitical crisis. This is Econ 101 with a CNN chyron.
Twelve percent in one month means the 2021 Tesla Model 3 that sold for $28,000 in June now costs $31,360 in July. That's an extra $3,360 because someone launched a missile at a tanker. The guy buying that Tesla thinks he's making a smart financial decision. He's paying a war premium on a depreciating asset to save $60 a month on gas he might not even be buying in six months when crude crashes back to $70 and he's stuck with a car he overpaid for and a charging cable that doesn't fit his apartment complex outlet.
Wholesale auctions moved the market 12% in four weeks and nobody writing about EVs mentioned that this is the exact kind of momentum spike that reverses the second the catalyst disappears. Iran could sign a peace treaty tomorrow and Derek's $31,000 Model 3 becomes a $28,000 Model 3 with worse range and a crack in the windshield he didn't notice during the test drive because he was too busy calculating his savings on premium unleaded.
Photo by pouria oskuie on Unsplash
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