The United States plans to launch the "greatest financial offensive" against Iran. Iran plans to seize ships. One of these threats involves actual physical objects that float.
The financial offensive will likely include sanctions, which are just Excel formulas with diplomatic immunity. Iran responded by threatening to grab boats in international waters. This is the geopolitical equivalent of bringing a gun to a PowerPoint presentation.
Both sides missed a 60-day ceasefire window. Diplomats had two whole months to agree on literally anything and chose not to. The formal truce mechanism is now closed, which means the informal mechanism remains wide open. That mechanism is called "doing whatever the f*ck you want."
Retail traders will attempt to play this situation by buying oil futures at 3am on their phones while sitting on the toilet. They will read one headline about ship seizures and decide they understand Middle Eastern geopolitics better than the State Department. They do not.
The greatest financial offensive in history will be announced with a press release and implemented by bureaucrats who have never seen the inside of a trading floor. Iran will counter by physically commandeering vessels. One side is threatening to adjust numbers in a database. The other side is threatening to board ships with armed personnel.
The six-month war continues. The sanctions will be called crippling. The ship seizures will be called provocative. Oil will go up or down depending on which algo read the headline first. Somewhere a day trader is googling "what is Iran" and preparing to risk his daughter's college fund on a hunch.
America's greatest weapon is a spreadsheet. Iran's greatest weapon floats.
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