Tankers near Oman took fire this week. Iran threatened to choke off shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz suddenly matters to people who couldn't find it on a map with both hands and a f*cking GPS.
Twenty percent of the world's oil passes through that strait. Has for decades. But sure, this week's headline is what finally makes it relevant to your portfolio. Not the previous dozen times this exact scenario played out. This time it's different.
Trump is reportedly preparing fresh strikes against Iran. U.S. media reports say so. Which means someone leaked it, which means it's either posturing or already priced in, which means you're late. Again.
Retail traders are now panic-searching energy ETFs. They're drawing lines on crude oil charts. They're convinced they've spotted the pattern that institutional desks with satellite imagery and intelligence contacts somehow missed. Bold strategy.
Here's what happens next. Oil spikes for three days. CNBC runs the same B-roll of tankers they've used since 2019. Someone on Twitter posts a thread about geopolitical risk premiums. You buy at the top. Iran and the U.S. de-escalate or don't, but either way the move is over before you've closed your position.
The technical setup doesn't care about tankers. It doesn't care about Oman. It doesn't care that you just learned what a strait is. Price does what it does. Your opinion about Middle Eastern conflict zones is worth exactly what you paid for your Benzinga Pro subscription.
Threats to choke off shipping routes make for great headlines. They make for terrible trade signals. But you'll learn that the expensive way, after you've already moved your stop loss three times and convinced yourself it's a longer-term hold. It was never a longer-term hold.
Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash
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