JPMorgan released a report explaining how the market might react to July's CPI numbers. Might. Could. May. These are the words analysts use when they have no f*cking idea what will happen but still need to justify the salaries.
The report says stocks could experience "notable swings" on Wednesday. Notable swings. As opposed to all those other Wednesdays when the market sits perfectly still like a statue while inflation data drops. JPMorgan's crack team of PhDs studied the charts and determined that numbers going up or down might cause other numbers to go up or down.
Here's what they won't tell you. The CPI report gets released at 8:30 AM. By 8:31 AM every algorithm on Wall Street has already traded seventeen thousand times. By 9:00 AM the move is done. By 9:30 AM when retail opens their Robinhood app, they're buying the top of whatever direction the market already went.
But JPMorgan wants you to read their preview. They want you to feel prepared. They want you to believe that knowing their opinion about how the market "may" react gives you an edge. It doesn't.
The technical setup doesn't care about CPI. Support and resistance levels existed before the report and they'll exist after. The only thing that changes is which excuse talking heads use to explain why the line went the direction it was already going to go.
Some guy in Ohio is reading this JPMorgan report right now. He's taking notes. He's setting alerts. He's planning his entire trading strategy around what JPMorgan thinks "may" happen. On Thursday he'll tell his wife they need to skip her sister's wedding because the portfolio is down eight percent and he needs to "manage the position."
JPMorgan's report contained one hundred percent accuracy: something will probably happen.
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