The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% because the new Fed chair opened his mouth. Bond yields climbed. Traders who spent the last six months convinced that nothing bad could ever happen again discovered that 1.2% feels like a war crime when you're leveraged 3x on margin.
Kevin Warsh took over. Said some things. The market heard those things and decided to sell. This is apparently news. A central banker spoke and asset prices moved. Stop the f*cking presses.
Here's what definitely happened: Warsh used words like "inflation" or "rates" or "patient" or "data-dependent" and every algorithm from here to Singapore interpreted those syllables as a reason to dump equities. Retail traders who bought calls at the top because a Discord server told them stonks only go up are now refreshing their Robinhood apps wondering why the line went the wrong direction.
Bond yields rose because bonds do that sometimes. They go up. Then they go down. Then some guy on CNBC explains why the move was obvious in hindsight. Then your uncle who works in insurance forwards you an article about what it all means for your portfolio. Then nothing happens for three months.
The market didn't like what it heard. That's the story. As if the market has ears. As if it sits there taking notes during the press conference like a diligent student. The S&P 500 closed lower because more people sold than bought between 9:30 and 4:00 Eastern. Kevin Warsh's comments were as relevant to that outcome as my breakfast was to the price of copper.
Tomorrow the market will move again. Someone will explain why. That explanation will also be wrong.
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