Rates climbed for six weeks straight. Demand fell for seven. The math majors among you will notice that's an extra week of people giving up before rates even finished their ascent. Someone jumped early.
The 30-year fixed mortgage now sits well over 7%. Homebuyers checked their pre-approval letters from three months ago and wept. Refinance applications dropped like a portfolio full of 0DTE calls on a Friday at 3:58 PM. Both groups knew rates could go up. Both groups assumed they wouldn't.
Here's what nobody wants to admit: mortgage rates have exactly zero correlation with your desire to own a home. You either need shelter or you don't. The rate doesn't change the square footage. It doesn't add a bathroom. It just makes you poorer over thirty years instead of over twenty-five years. But sure, wait for the perfect entry point on the thing you sleep in.
Refinance demand got hit especially hard. These are people who already own homes. They're not homeless. They're not desperate. They're just greedy. They wanted to lock in a lower rate so they could pull cash out and buy a boat or renovate a kitchen they'll use twice. Now they're stuck with their existing 4.5% rate like it's some kind of tragedy. My heart f*cking bleeds.
The homebuyers have it worse, admittedly. They're renting. They're watching their landlord raise rent every year while they save for a down payment that grows faster than their income. They finally scrape together enough cash, and rates jump from 6% to 7%. So they wait. Rates hit 8%. They wait more. Rent goes up again. They die renters, having successfully avoided overpaying.
But at least they didn't try to time the mortgage market.
Photo by Precondo CA on Unsplash
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