Mortgage demand jumped 11% while interest rates climbed. This violates the one principle even your uncle who watches CNBC at the airport understands: rates go up, demand goes down. Econ 101 died. Nobody noticed.
The technical explanation involves some hand-waving about people rushing to lock in rates before they climb higher, which is like saying you bought the dip on a stock that's been falling for six months. You didn't time the bottom. You caught a falling knife. The knife is now lodged in your hand.
Current homeowners refinancing at higher rates than they currently have. Think about that. They're voluntarily paying more money to borrow the same amount they already borrowed at a better price. This is the financial equivalent of trading in your paid-off Honda for a worse Honda with a loan attached. But sure, mortgage demand is "surging."
The word "volatile" appears in this headline like it means something. Volatile just means the number went up and down and some intern needed to fill space in the summary. Everything is volatile when you zoom in close enough. My heart rate is volatile. Doesn't mean I'm having a medical emergency every time it beats.
Potential buyers saw rates climb and decided this was their moment. This is the same logic that makes people buy lottery tickets after someone else wins. The odds didn't improve. You just heard a story.
The data says people want mortgages more when mortgages cost more. The data is either wrong or we've reached a point where consumer behavior operates on pure vibes and f*ck-it energy. I'm betting on vibes.
Rate hikes used to cool demand. Now they inspire it. Up is down. Left is right. Retail traders refinance into worse terms and call it wealth building.
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