Netanyahu told Trump the Gaza plan won't work. Trump wanted a deal. Netanyahu said no. The far-right ministers in his cabinet wanted less compromise. Trump wanted more. Netanyahu chose a side. He picked the guys who will never be satisfied over the guy with nuclear codes and a history of revenge.
This is called political strategy in the same way jumping off a building is called an exercise routine.
The technical analysis here is flawless. Resistance level: Trump's ego. Support level: absolutely nothing. Netanyahu threaded a needle that doesn't exist between people who think he's too soft and a former reality TV host who just brokered what he's calling a historic peace plan. One of these groups controls whether Netanyahu stays in power. The other controls the United States military.
Retail traders are now Googling whether geopolitical tension creates alpha in small-cap biotech. It does not. It never did. Your ETF will not benefit from this. Your puts on defense contractors will expire worthless because you bought them after the move already happened.
Netanyahu's position is mathematically elegant. He needs the far-right coalition to stay prime minister. He needs Trump to not actively hate him. He cannot have both. So he chose door number three: tell Trump no and hope everyone forgets by Tuesday.
Trump will not forget by Tuesday.
The far-right ministers will demand more concessions Netanyahu cannot give. Trump will demand progress Netanyahu cannot deliver. And somewhere in a brokerage account in Ohio, a guy named Derek just bought shares of a drone manufacturer because he heard tension in the Middle East on a podcast. Derek's down 8% since market open. Derek will be down 20% by Friday. Derek thinks he's hedging inflation.
Photo by Mohammed Ibrahim on Unsplash
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