Mitch McConnell fell down. Spent three months recovering. Now he's back at work. The man is 84 years old and his job is to show up and vote on things. He could not do this for a quarter of a year.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately started scanning for market implications. Does McConnell's return affect the defense sector? What about healthcare stocks? They pulled up their Robinhood accounts. Checked their watchlists. Started building a thesis around geriatric rehabilitation centers as a growth industry.
Here's what actually happened: an elderly man experienced the consequences of gravity. Fell down. Got pneumonia because that's what happens when old people fall down. Spent weeks in rehabilitation learning to walk again. Then returned to his six-figure salary to cast votes he could have phoned in.
The Senate operates with a 51-49 split. Every vote matters. Except McConnell missed dozens of them during his three-month vacation and somehow the republic survived. Bills passed. Bills failed. The legislative process continued without him because it turns out one senator being gone changes absolutely nothing about how Washington functions.
But some guy in Cleveland with $8,000 in a TD Ameritrade account read this headline and thought it was actionable intelligence. Started researching which pharmaceutical companies make pneumonia medication. Looked up walker manufacturers. Built a spreadsheet correlating Senate attendance records with small-cap mobility device stocks. Convinced himself he found an edge.
McConnell walks back into the Senate chamber after 90 days. His colleagues welcome him back. They ask about his health. He votes on something. The vote goes exactly how it would have gone if he stayed home. The market does not move. Your portfolio does not change. The only difference is an 84-year-old man is now standing in a different building than he was yesterday.
That guy in Cleveland is still holding his walker company shares.
Photo by Jorge Maya on Unsplash
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