Pakistan announced progress on brokering a deal between Washington and Tehran. The two governments are apparently winding down regional hostilities while simultaneously demanding reparations from each other. Pick a lane.
This is the geopolitical equivalent of your cousin offering to help you and your ex settle your divorce while you're both still screaming about who gets the Le Creuset. Pakistan has positioned itself as the marriage counselor nobody asked for, moderating a dispute between a theocracy that chants "Death to America" at government functions and a country that can't remember which Middle Eastern nation it's sanctioning on any given Tuesday.
The reparation demands are flowing in both directions. Washington wants compensation for something. Tehran wants compensation for something else. Both sides remain far apart, which is a refreshing change from being far apart while lobbing missiles at each other's proxies. Progress.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately started googling "How to trade Pakistan rupee options" as if Islamabad's diplomatic efforts will somehow affect their Robinhood account. They will lose money on this thesis. They will lose money on every thesis. A guy in Michigan is currently building a spreadsheet correlating Pakistani foreign policy announcements with Brent crude futures. The spreadsheet has seventeen tabs. He will be broke by September.
The deal involves winding down hostilities, which suggests the hostilities were previously wound up like a mechanical toy. Someone turned the key too many times. Now Pakistan gets to slowly release the tension while both parties argue about who pays for the therapy sessions.
If you're trading based on diplomatic breakthroughs mediated by third-party nations in South Asia, you deserve whatever happens to your portfolio.
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