Ocasio-Cortez announced she hasn't ruled out running for president or Senate in 2028. This counts as news because a politician said she might seek a different political office four years from now.
Imagine if your plumber told you he hasn't ruled out fixing toilets in 2028. You'd ask him to leave your house.
The congresswoman has emerged as a polling favorite to be the Democratic nominee. Polls taken four years before an election have roughly the same predictive power as a Magic 8-Ball filled with expired milk. But retail traders will absolutely find a way to lose money on this information. Some guy in Wisconsin is already researching presidential election prediction markets while his Robinhood account bleeds out from leveraged ETF positions he doesn't understand.
She also hasn't ruled out a Senate run. So she might run for president. Or she might run for Senate. Or she might do neither. This is the political equivalent of a company announcing they're exploring strategic alternatives, which means absolutely nothing but generates headlines anyway.
The year is 2028. You haven't ruled out being rich by then. You also haven't ruled out being poor. You definitely haven't ruled out still checking your brokerage app seventeen times a day hoping your meme stock finally does something. None of this constitutes news worth trading on.
But you'll trade on it anyway. Because you saw a headline about 2028 and thought it gave you an edge on market positioning for an election cycle that hasn't started for a candidate who hasn't declared for an office she hasn't chosen. Your stop-loss is crying.
Photo by LSE Library on Unsplash
Leave a Comment