The U.S. military hit three Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island on Saturday after missiles targeted Navy warships. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports. Traders immediately began panic-searching "where is Iran" and "is oil a stock."
Central Command confirmed the strikes. Oil futures jumped. Retail accounts nationwide prepared to buy leveraged ETFs they cannot pronounce. One man in Arizona queued up a market order for USO at 11 PM on a Saturday. He will lose everything by Tuesday.
Iran exports approximately 1.5 million barrels per day when sanctions permit. The tankers were carrying crude. The Gulf was tense. None of this information will help you make money because you do not know what a contango is and you will not look it up.
Technical analysis says none of this matters. The 50-day moving average on crude did not care about missiles yesterday. It will not care about tankers today. The Bollinger Bands remain unchanged by geopolitics. Your trendlines do not factor in military strikes because trendlines are lines you drew on a chart with a mouse.
Somewhere a Discord server is lighting up with the word "calls." Seventeen men are typing "this is bullish for defense stocks" without checking if defense contractors actually build the missiles used in naval engagements. They do not know. They will buy Lockheed Martin anyway. Lockheed Martin makes fighter jets. The Navy used ship-mounted systems. No one will check.
The tankers were near a key export hub. The missiles targeted warships. The strikes happened Saturday. Oil will open higher Monday. By Wednesday it will be back where it started and you will have lost 40% on options you bought because someone on Twitter said "gap up incoming."
Iran has threatened retaliation. The U.S. has defended shipping lanes. None of this is new. Your technical indicators remain powerless against the forward curve, which you still think is a yoga position.
Photo by Karl Callwood on Unsplash
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