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Retail Traders Blame Chip Stocks for Their Own Bad Decisions


Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week.

  •   1 min read
Retail Traders Blame Chip Stocks for Their Own Bad Decisions

Nvidia reported earnings. Micron reported earnings. The jobs report came out. Three things happened and retail traders pretended they could predict what would happen next.

They could not.

The headline says these three developments "drove the action" in someone's portfolio last week. Drove it where? Off a cliff? Into a ditch? The phrase means nothing. Markets moved because markets move. Stocks went up or down because people bought or sold them. Nvidia's numbers were whatever they were. Micron's numbers were whatever they were. The jobs report showed some number of jobs that surprised exactly nobody who understands that every jobs report is a surprise to someone.

Here's what actually happened. Retail traders saw Nvidia move and decided that meant something about the future. Then they saw Micron move and decided that meant something different about the future. Then the jobs report came out and they decided both previous things they decided were wrong. They lost money at each step. They will do it again next week.

The beautiful part is they needed a closer look at these three developments. As if staring harder at a chip company's guidance would reveal some secret the market missed. As if understanding why non-farm payrolls beat expectations by 15,000 jobs would give them an edge. They read the analysis. They studied the charts. They learned absolutely nothing except how to lose money with more conviction.

Some guy somewhere has a portfolio. That portfolio moved last week. He wrote a summary explaining why it moved. The summary lists three reasons. All three reasons are things that already happened. None of them will help you predict what happens tomorrow. But sure, take a closer look.

Technical levels don't care about earnings reports, and your Robinhood account doesn't care about your analysis.

Photo by on Unsplash

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