Chinese biopharma stocks jumped Monday because the U.S. might allow drug licensing deals to continue. Might. Not will. Not definitely. Might. Traders saw the word "might" in a headline and bought stocks in a country they can't spell the name of in companies they've never heard of selling drugs they can't pronounce.
The report says the U.S. may keep the door open to most deals. Most deals. Which means some deals are still f*cked. But retail doesn't read past the first three words of any headline so here we are.
You spent the last six months telling everyone at Applebee's that China was uninvestable because of geopolitical risk. You used the phrase "geopolitical risk" like you knew what it meant. You didn't. Now you're buying Chinese biopharma stocks because one anonymous source told Reuters that maybe the government won't completely destroy an entire sector. This is your investment thesis. An unnamed person said things might not get worse.
The technical setup was irrelevant a week ago. It's irrelevant now. It will be irrelevant when these stocks give back every penny of Monday's gains by Thursday. But you won't be holding by Thursday because you'll panic sell Wednesday morning when another headline says the U.S. is "reconsidering" or "evaluating" or "monitoring the situation."
Chinese biopharma companies are developing actual drugs that might save actual lives. You're using them as lottery tickets because a blog post suggested the regulatory environment might become slightly less hostile. The drugs don't matter. The science doesn't matter. The chart looked like it was going up so you clicked buy.
Congrats on turning international pharmaceutical policy into another reason to check your portfolio every four minutes.
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