Investors wait for August inflation data. They want to know where rates go next. This is the financial equivalent of checking your horoscope before open heart surgery.
Yields spiked to levels not seen in years. That phrase does all the work here. Not seen in years. Could be two years. Could be three. The vagueness exists so when you're wrong later you can point back and say you never specified which years. It's like your girlfriend saying she'll be ready in a minute.
The Federal Reserve might do something with interest rates. Or they might do something else. Or nothing. This is why investors zero in on the data, which is a polite way of saying they'll spend seventy-two hours guessing, get it wrong, then blame Jerome Powell for not telepathically communicating his intentions through their Robinhood app.
Here's what happens next week. The number comes out. If it's high, traders panic. If it's low, traders panic. If it matches expectations perfectly, traders panic because they already priced it in wrong three days ago when they read a thread on Twitter from a guy whose bio says Former Wendy's Assistant Manager, Current Market Genius.
Technical analysis says none of this matters. The chart already knows what the chart's going to do. It doesn't care about your CPI print. It doesn't read CNBC headlines. It just moves based on where the previous move exhausted itself, and retail steps in at exactly the wrong time because they confused inflation data with actual market structure.
But sure. Zero in on those numbers. Circle them. Highlight them. Print them out and tape them to your vision board. The Fed will do whatever protects the banks, inflation will mean whatever they need it to mean, and your stops will get hunted regardless of what August's data says.
Photo by Joachim Schnürle on Unsplash
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