Mike Santoli just told investors to be on high alert because market metrics are coiling near consequential thresholds. Coiling. Like a spring, or a snake, or perhaps a really tense garden hose.
The thresholds remain unnamed. The metrics remain unspecified. The consequences remain theoretical. But the alert level has been raised from beige to tan.
Retail traders will read this headline and check their portfolios six times before lunch. They will google "what does coiling mean in stocks" and click on a Reddit thread from 2019. They will set price alerts on ETFs they bought because the ticker sounded cool. None of this will prevent what happens in September, which is the same thing that happens every September: they lose money and blame algorithms.
The beautiful thing about consequential thresholds is they only become consequential after you blow through them. Before that moment they are just numbers on a screen that some guy named Santoli thought looked important. A threshold crossed is a breakdown. A threshold respected is a successful test of support. The market does whatever it wants and technical analysts apply the label afterward like a participation ribbon at a science fair.
September has scared investors since the day someone published the first calendar-based trading pattern and every newsletter writer on Earth copied it into their monthly fear distribution. The month itself does nothing. It contains no special gravity. It casts no spell. But it gives analysts something to write about in August when everyone with money is on a boat.
High alert means check your phone more often and feel worse about it.
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