Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to a three-month low because turns out captains prefer routes where people aren't actively trying to kill them. Ninety percent lower than the usual 130 ships per day. That's not a dip. That's a f*cking extinction event for maritime schedules.
The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th. Ships immediately started avoiding the area like it was a timeshare presentation. Retail traders saw the news and bought oil futures because they read somewhere that less supply means higher prices. They forgot that ships can just go around Africa. Takes longer. Costs more. Still beats getting turned into a submarine the hard way.
Every financial network rolled out their Hormuz expert to explain why this matters for your portfolio. They pointed at maps. They used the word chokepoint seventeen times. They failed to mention that this exact scenario happens every eighteen months and oil prices always revert to wherever Saudi Arabia feels like setting them that week.
The real story is that thirteen captains are currently anchored off Dubai writing strongly worded emails to their insurance companies about force majeure clauses. Their cargo is rotting. Their crews are complaining. Their bosses keep sending Microsoft Teams messages asking for ETAs like the Strait isn't currently hosting a geopolitical pissing contest between three countries with enough missiles to block out the sun.
But sure, trade the headline. Buy crude. Sell it next Tuesday when traffic goes back to normal and you're stuck explaining to your spouse why the vacation fund is now worth enough for a weekend in Tucson.
The U.S.-Iran deal remains in doubt, which is diplomat-speak for dead but we're too polite to say it. Ship captains knew that before the State Department did.
Photo by Amin Zand Miralvand on Unsplash
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