SpaceX will allocate a percentage in the low 20s of its IPO to retail investors. The high 20s were apparently too generous. The mid 20s felt irresponsible. Elon Musk's team ran the numbers and landed on a figure that says "we legally have to let you in, but we don't have to like it."
Retail allocation used to hit 35% in hot IPOs. Then 30%. Now the low 20s. By 2027 you'll get 8% and a Wendy's coupon. By 2028 they'll just email you a screenshot of the stock price and ask if that's enough.
The person familiar with the matter declined to specify whether "low 20s" means 20%, 21%, or 22%. Precision would imply retail investors deserve clarity. They do not. They deserve whatever crumbs fall between the couch cushions of institutional allocations and they should be grateful the crumbs aren't imaginary.
SpaceX builds reusable rockets that land themselves on drone ships in the ocean. Retail investors build portfolios that land themselves in margin calls. One of these groups has earned the right to buy shares at the offering price. The other group will panic-sell at $12 after buying at $340 and then write a Reddit post about how the market is rigged.
Institutional investors get the high 70s percentage because they have something retail lacks. It's called money they can afford to lose without becoming a GoFundMe case study. Also they don't check their brokerage app every eleven seconds like a rat hitting a dopamine lever.
The source familiar with the matter did not explain why SpaceX is going public now. Probably because even Elon Musk got tired of being the only person who can't sell his shares to buy more stupid shit. The retail allocation exists so the headline can say "inclusive" without anyone laughing too hard.
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