The Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump cannot fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve. For now. Those last two words doing a lot of work there.
Cook gets to keep her job as a Fed governor while her lawsuit plays out. She'll continue showing up to meetings about interest rates and employment data. Trump will continue not firing her. The courts will continue pretending this matters to your portfolio.
Here's what retail traders heard: "Fed drama equals volatility equals opportunity." They're currently scanning their brokerages for a Fed Governor ETF. It doesn't exist. They'll buy SPY calls anyway. This is the same crowd that thought Silicon Valley Bank's collapse meant tech stocks would moon because "money has to go somewhere."
The technical picture remains unchanged. The 50-day moving average doesn't care about employment law. The Bollinger Bands aren't widening because of executive branch authority disputes. Your Fibonacci retracement levels work exactly as well today as they did before this ruling, which is to say not at all, but that won't stop you from drawing them.
Cook's job status has the same impact on market direction as a butterfly flapping its wings in Jakarta. Actually, the butterfly probably has better liquidity.
Someone somewhere is building a Trump-versus-Fed-governors trading algorithm. They're backtesting it against previous administration conflicts. They're calculating correlation coefficients. They're about to discover that constitutional law and candlestick patterns have nothing in common, but only after they've blown through their margin.
The real story: a government institution follows government procedures about government employees. Stop the f*cking presses. Your calls expire worthless either way.
Photo by Joshua Woods on Unsplash
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