The Supreme Court lifted an injunction on Trump-era vote-by-mail restrictions across 23 states and Washington D.C. The three liberal justices dissented. Retail traders immediately checked their brokerage apps to see if this affected their positions. It did not.
Voting rights cases move markets the same way your high school reunion affects the price of copper futures. They don't. But some guy named Derek in Milwaukee just panic-sold his SPY calls because he saw "Supreme Court" trending and assumed it meant his $347 in equity was about to vanish. Derek's stop loss triggered at exactly the worst possible moment. Derek will blame the court. Derek will not blame Derek.
The unsigned order means no one wanted their name on it. That's how you know it's either deeply controversial or so boring that even Supreme Court justices couldn't pretend to care. Either way, your Tesla shares don't give a f*ck. The VIX didn't move. Gold didn't move. Bitcoin spent the day doing what it always does, which is disappointing everyone who bought it above $60,000.
Three justices dissented. That's code for "we lost the vote but wanted to go on record saying we think this sucks." It's the judicial equivalent of tweeting through it. None of this changes the fact that midterm elections historically produce a 1.2% average return in the S&P 500 regardless of which party wins, which means you could have just bought an index fund and gone to the beach instead of pretending to understand constitutional law.
The real story is that someone at a trading desk saw this headline, tried to build a thesis around it, and is now explaining to their boss why they're down 0.03% on the day. That person makes $240,000 a year. You make less and somehow lost more money today.
Photo by Fine Photographics on Unsplash
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