Santoli cites textbooks. The textbooks say real yields restrain growth and equity valuations. The textbooks have spoken. Pack it up.
Real yields hit cycle highs. Everyone panics on cue. Bond yields matter now because the calendar says they matter now. Not because anything changed. Not because some fundamental shift occurred in the fabric of markets. Because it's time. The textbooks said so.
Retail traders spent six months ignoring yields entirely. Bought every dip. Leveraged themselves into oblivion on stocks that don't earn money. Then one analyst mentions the word "restraint" and suddenly they're all fixed income scholars. They're reading papers on the Phillips Curve. They're debating terminal rates at Applebee's. They discovered bond math exists and now they won't shut up about it.
The fuss is happening now because financial media needs a reason. Markets move. Someone has to explain why. Can't just say "prices went up then down because people bought then sold." That's not a segment. That's not content. So we get textbook theory. We get cycle highs. We get restraint on valuations.
Valuations were already stupid. Yields were always going to matter eventually. Acting surprised that bonds affect stocks is like acting surprised that winter gets cold. It happens every year. You live here. You know this.
The best part is pretending this is analysis. Real yields as a restraint. Groundbreaking stuff. Next he'll cite a textbook that says stocks go up when earnings improve. Then one that says diversification reduces risk. Then we'll all nod thoughtfully like we learned something instead of getting reminded of chapter three from a book we pretended to read in 2009.
Your portfolio doesn't care what the textbooks say it should do.
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
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