Scott Bessent stood in front of cameras and explained that frozen Iranian assets will be released and overseen by Treasury. The money will go to U.S. agriculture and medicines. He said this with a straight face.
Your first question should be why Iranian frozen funds are being released at all. Your second question should be why Treasury needs to oversee money going to American farmers and pharmaceutical companies. Your third question should be why anyone pretends this has anything to do with technical analysis or market structure or any metric that could be plotted on a chart.
Retail traders will wake up tomorrow and draw trendlines on their SPY calls. They will measure the RSI on their tech stocks. They will calculate Fibonacci retracements on assets that moved based on a phone call between two people they've never met about money that was frozen before they opened their first Robinhood account. None of this information will appear in their indicators. None of it will show up in their scanner. They will lose money and blame themselves for not seeing the pattern.
The pattern is that Scott Bessent says things and then other things happen and your portfolio goes up or down based on whether a guy in a suit decided to route Iranian money through the Department of Agriculture instead of somewhere else. You cannot chart this. You cannot backtest it. You cannot build a trading system around Treasury Secretary noun-verb-object sentences that sound like they were generated by a government mad lib.
But please, tell me more about your 200-day moving average and how it's definitely going to predict what happens when billions of dollars get unfrozen and sent to wheat farmers because a cabinet member said so on a Tuesday.
Photo by Connor Gan on Unsplash
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