Trump announced the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz. Ships keep getting attacked there. Few vessels attempt the crossing anymore. But sure, we're in control.
This is like declaring yourself the undisputed champion of a restaurant you got kicked out of. The bouncer is still throwing punches at anyone who tries to enter. Customers are avoiding the place entirely. You're standing in the parking lot insisting you run the joint.
No talks scheduled with Iran, he says. Why would there be? Talking implies both sides acknowledge a problem exists. Trump's strategy appears to be announcing dominance over a shipping lane that functions as a shooting gallery. Vessels are under attack. Captains are routing around it. But the vibes? The vibes are that we're winning.
Retail traders will see this headline and immediately start building spreadsheets about oil tanker ETFs. They'll calculate risk premiums for maritime insurance. They'll buy calls on defense contractors. Then they'll watch crude prices do whatever the f*ck crude prices were going to do anyway, which has nothing to do with who says they control a strait where nobody wants to sail.
The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Roughly 21 million barrels of oil pass through it daily when ships aren't being shot at. Now it's a zone boats actively avoid while the president insists we're the ones calling the shots. It's the geopolitical equivalent of winning an argument after everyone left the room.
Iran doesn't need to schedule talks. They're already communicating through the universal language of attacking ships. Trump's teasing action, which is a fascinating verb choice for potential military engagement. Really builds the suspense. Can't wait for the season finale where we find out whether anyone actually controls the waterway people are too scared to use.
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