The Strait of Hormuz might reopen once Trump signs a deal with Iran. Might being the key word. As soon as is doing heavy lifting. The kind of lifting that snaps a tendon.
State media announced it. Iranian state media. The same folks who bring you North Korea's grain production reports and every tweet your uncle shares about election fraud. Real trustworthy stuff.
Oil sanctions get lifted in this deal. Which means gas prices drop. Which means every dipshit who bought USO calls at the top gets to explain to his wife why they can't afford the Disney cruise. Again.
Retail traders spent three weeks learning what a strait is. Bought tanker stocks. Made TikToks about geopolitical risk premiums. Used the word chokepoint in sentences. Felt smart. Then Trump says deal's done and Brent crude drops six percent before they can spell Hormuz.
The Strait handles a third of global seaborne oil. Apparently. Nobody knew that until it closed. Same way nobody knows where their pancreas is until it stops working. Now every moron with a Robinhood account thinks he's Kissinger because he can point to it on a map.
Iran agrees to reopen a waterway they technically never closed but definitely threatened to close multiple times. The U.S. agrees to lift sanctions they swore were permanent but apparently weren't. Both sides declare victory. Both sides are lying. The oil flows anyway because it always does.
Somewhere a geopolitical analyst who spent four years getting a PhD in Middle Eastern studies just watched his entire thesis get solved by a phone call and a press release. He's updating his LinkedIn right now. Considering law school.
The deal gets signed and crude tanks and every genius who went long on war never realizes the war was already priced in three conflicts ago.
Photo by on Unsplash
Leave a Comment