Iran and Oman want to manage a shipping route together through the Strait of Hormuz. They also discussed mine clearing. The mines that definitely aren't Iranian. The mines that simply appeared in the water like algae blooms or medical billing errors.
This is the geopolitical equivalent of your roommate suggesting you split the cost of hiring someone to clean up the mess he made. Except the mess is explosive ordnance in the world's most important oil chokepoint and your roommate has been threatening to close the strait every other Tuesday since 1979.
Twenty percent of global oil passes through Hormuz. Iran controls the northern shore. Oman controls the southern shore. Now they'd like to jointly manage traffic between them. Like a divorced couple running a Dairy Queen franchise except the soft-serve machine is seventeen million barrels per day and one parent keeps hiding explosives in the parking lot.
The beauty of this proposal is its efficiency. Iran can mine the strait and clear the strait simultaneously. Vertical integration at its finest. They've cut out the middleman entirely. Jeff Bezos is taking notes.
Retail traders are already pricing in stability premiums they don't understand based on headlines they didn't read about waterways they cannot locate on a map. Some guy in Michigan just went long on crude futures because his TikTok feed said Hormuz and he thought it sounded bullish. He'll be bankrupt by Friday arguing with customer service about margin calls.
The joint route makes perfect sense if you ignore every geopolitical reality of the last four decades. Iran promises safe passage through the same strait it periodically threatens to close. Oman nods along. Everyone pretends this is diplomacy and not a protection racket with state flags.
The mine clearing mission is my favorite part. Implies an ongoing need. Suggests the mines will keep appearing like they're self-replicating. Really commits to the bit that nobody knows where they came from.
Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash
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