Ten weeks before an election that happens every four years on a date that has been known since the founding of the republic, Wall Street analysts have just noticed there's an election coming. These are the same people managing your retirement account.
The headline says markets are "starting to care" as if the November 3rd date snuck up on them like a surprise birthday party. It didn't. It was on the calendar. The same calendar they use to schedule earnings calls and cocaine deliveries.
Wall Street's concern is that "risks to investors" depend on "how the U.S. results turn out." Brilliant. They've deduced that different election outcomes might produce different market conditions. This is the analysis you're paying 2 and 20 for.
The funniest part is the ten-week timeline. Not eleven weeks. Not nine. Ten weeks is apparently when the big brains flip the switch from "ignore completely" to "obsess frantically." There's probably a Bloomberg terminal alert that goes off. ELECTION PROXIMITY BREACH. DEPLOY CONCERN.
Retail traders are now refreshing their Robinhood apps wondering if they should buy political risk or sell democracy. They're Googling "how to hedge midterms" and getting results about gardening. They're asking ChatGPT which party is more bullish on GameStop.
The truth is none of this matters. Markets don't care about elections ten weeks out. They care about elections ten minutes out, then forget immediately after. But analysts need something to write about between now and earnings season, so they've chosen anxiety.
By November 4th, these same analysts will explain why the election result was "already priced in" and actually the real story is Fed policy or Chinese manufacturing data or whatever fills the content quota that week.
If your investment thesis changes based on which geriatric wins a popularity contest, you don't have a thesis—you have a horoscope with a portfolio attached.
Leave a Comment