SpaceX wants to go public. Wall Street says the market can absorb it. Absorb is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Like a diaper absorbs things.
The concern isn't whether the bull market survives one IPO. It's what comes after. Translation: investors finally figured out that infinite supply meets finite demand and someone has to hold the bag. Spoiler—it's you.
Wall Street has assured everyone the market has "what it takes" to handle new shares. What it takes is your money. That's the secret ingredient. They need fresh capital to buy the fresh supply so the people who already own SpaceX stock can sell it to you at the top. This is called liquidity. You are the liquidity.
The bull market won't break because SpaceX IPOs. It'll break because twelve other companies see SpaceX IPO successfully and decide to dump their shares on the market in the same quarter. Then four more. Then every private company with a valuation held together by prayer and a Series F round. But sure, the market can absorb it. Like your liver can absorb vodka. Technically true until it's not.
Retail traders are worried about what comes next. Smart. For once. What comes next is you buying SpaceX at $120 a share because Elon tweeted a rocket emoji and some guy on YouTube said Mars colonies are priced in. Then SpaceX trades sideways for two years while insiders sell every monthly option expiration. Then you sell at $87 to buy the next IPO because this time will be different.
The bull market survives. You don't.
Photo by Sven Piper on Unsplash
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