Boeing and Airbus want to build new narrow-body jets. Airlines want the planes they already ordered. This is called a standoff between people who make things and people who paid for things they haven't received yet.
The manufacturers are preparing for battle. Preparing means PowerPoint decks and wind tunnel tests on aircraft that won't fly until 2035. Airlines are focused on production and deliveries. Focused means begging for the 737s and A320s they were promised three years ago.
Investors don't care either. They watched Boeing deliver planes with doors that fall off mid-flight and Airbus miss delivery targets for six consecutive quarters. Now both companies want enthusiasm for jets that exist only as CAD files and consultant fees. The investors are checking their watches.
This is like a restaurant telling you they're out of the burger you ordered forty minutes ago but they're really excited to show you next year's menu concept. You're not excited. You're hungry. You paid already. The kitchen is on fire.
Airlines operate the planes they have. They maintain fleets that should have been retired during the Obama administration because the new ones are parked in Seattle with missing bolts. Boeing and Airbus call this a market opportunity. Airlines call it Thursday.
The next narrow-body battle will be fought between two companies that can't manufacture the current narrow-bodies fast enough to meet demand from 2019. Revolutionary stuff. Someone should tell the shareholders their money is funding a fantasy football league for aerospace engineers who can't execute a production schedule.
But sure, let's talk about 2037 delivery slots while your 2023 order sits in a parking lot waiting for Spirit AeroSystems to figure out how doors work.
Photo by Luca Cavallin on Unsplash
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