Americans Are Gloomy. Their Portfolios Are Worse.

Americans are nearly as gloomy about the economy as they were emerging from the pandemic. Pollsters call this a finding. I call it Tuesday.

Think about that. The pandemic had lockdowns. Sourdough starters. A man in Ohio licking a grocery cart for views. Today we have a functioning economy and the mood of a hospice waiting room.

The poll also asks about inflation, AI, and Trump. Four topics. One feeling. Dread, with a margin of error.

Voters are worried about prices. Fair. Groceries cost what a kidney used to. But the same voters will pay nine dollars for a coffee named after a dessert. Inflation is not the problem. Your impulse control is.

Now AI. Americans fear it will take their jobs. Relax. Most of you have spent a decade proving a spreadsheet could do your job while you were in the room.

Trump polls the way he always does. Half the country loves him. Half wants him gone. Both halves check the market every morning, then act surprised when it ignores them.

Here is where the retail trader comes in. You read a poll about economic gloom and thought, "Contrarian signal. Buy calls." Congratulations. You are the only person in America whose mood is a trade, and the trade is losing.

Sentiment surveys do not predict anything. They measure how people feel after they have already been punched. You are reading a bruise report and calling it a forecast.

The midterms are coming. Candidates will promise to fix the economy. They will fail, blame the other party, and cash a check from a donor who shorted the whole thing.

Nothing here matters. Not the poll, not the percentages, not your stop-loss. You are a gloomy American with a brokerage app, which is like being a sad clown with a gun permit.

Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash