Bitcoin hit $86,000 on Monday. The financial press called it a rally. The rally consisted of Bitcoin returning to a price it already was in January. Traders who bought in January and held are now celebrating breaking even.
The market debates whether crypto winter is over. Crypto winter is what people call it when number goes down. When number goes back up to where it was before, they wonder if winter ended. They do not wonder if maybe it's just Thursday.
Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could go higher. Technical analysis also suggested Bitcoin would not spend eight months below $86,000. Technical analysis is astrology for people who think they're too smart for astrology.
The word "rally" gets thrown around. A rally used to mean sustained upward movement. Now it means the thing stopped falling long enough for someone to write a headline. Bitcoin spent days going up. Days. The marathon runners of price movement.
Retail traders check their portfolios. They bought at $92,000 because their cousin said it was going to $200,000. Their cousin heard it from a guy on YouTube who has "crypto" in his username and film lights he doesn't know how to use. The cousin now works at Costco. Still believes in the technology.
Someone on Twitter claims this validates their prediction model. Their prediction model is a chart with seventeen lines on it. None of the lines meant anything in January. They mean less now. But the lines are different colors, which makes them seem scientific.
Bitcoin could hit $100,000. Bitcoin could crash to $60,000. Bitcoin could stay exactly where it is until everyone gets bored and starts trading AI stocks again. The charts will not tell you which one happens because the charts are pictures of what already happened, and your Robinhood account is not a time machine.
Photo by André François McKenzie on Unsplash
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