The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August consumer price index Friday at 8:30 a.m. Retail traders have already set seventeen alarms.
This CPI report is described as "even more important than usual." Last month's CPI report was also described as even more important than usual. The month before that, same thing. Turns out every CPI report is the most important one until the next most important one arrives four weeks later.
The number could be high. The number could be low. The number could meet expectations, which means analysts will spend the morning explaining why the number that matched their guess is actually surprising. Then they'll debate whether 0.2% versus 0.3% changes the Fed's entire monetary policy framework, as if Jerome Powell is refreshing Excel at 8:30 a.m. instead of getting his second coffee.
Here's what technical analysis says about Friday's report: nothing. The chart doesn't care. The 200-day moving average doesn't pause to read headlines. Support and resistance levels weren't drawn by the BLS. Price action next week will be determined by where price action goes next week, which is exactly as useful as it sounds.
Somewhere right now a day trader is watching a YouTube video titled "CPI TRADING STRATEGY 2026 100% WIN RATE." He's taking notes. He's feeling prepared. He's already planned which strike prices he'll buy at 8:29 a.m. because getting filled during a news event always works out great.
The report will show inflation did something. Financial media will call it a game-changer. By Monday, nobody will remember the number. By next month, we'll do this again, except the September CPI will be even more important than the August CPI, which was even more important than usual.
The market will move or it won't. Your watchlist doesn't know what the BLS knows, and the BLS doesn't know what your watchlist is doing.
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
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