Netanyahu announced the war with Iran and Hezbollah isn't over. This comes after Iran said it's halting strikes. Both of these statements can be true at the same time if you understand that words mean nothing.
Iran and Israel traded strikes Sunday night. This marked the first exchange since a ceasefire agreement in mid-April. The ceasefire lasted roughly six weeks. That's longer than most retail traders hold a position, so by comparison it was an eternity.
Iran says it's done striking. Israel says the war continues. These are not contradictory positions. They're just two countries doing what countries do when they want to bomb each other but also want to sound reasonable on television.
The ceasefire was described as fragile. Fragile like your portfolio after you bought the dip for the seventh time. Fragile like your conviction when your stop loss hits. Fragile in the way that things are fragile when everyone knows they're going to break.
Netanyahu could have said nothing. He could have let Iran's statement stand. Instead he clarified that war continues even though Iran says it's stopping. This is the geopolitical equivalent of your spouse saying they're not mad while slamming every cabinet in the kitchen.
The market will respond to this news by doing whatever it was already going to do. Oil will move. Defense stocks will move. Someone will tweet about how this changes everything. It changes nothing.
You don't need to know who's striking whom or why the ceasefire failed or what Netanyahu meant by his statement. None of it matters for your trades. But you'll read seventeen analysis threads anyway because you're convinced that understanding Middle East policy will somehow help you time your SPY calls.
Iran halts strikes. Israel says war continues. The only thing rarer than a lasting ceasefire is a retail trader who admits he has no idea what he's doing.
Photo by hosein charbaghi on Unsplash
Leave a Comment