Trump blocked Canadian imports. Not some Canadian imports. Not strategic Canadian imports. Just Canadian imports. The president woke up and decided America needed fewer maple-flavored things crossing the border.
Canadian officials say they won't sign a bad deal. That's what every country says right before they sign a bad deal. It's the negotiating equivalent of saying you're definitely not going to sleep with someone at a bar. We all know how this ends.
The products barred from entry weren't specified in the headline because listing them would require acknowledging that Canada exports things other than apologies and hockey players. Probably lumber. Maybe some of that prescription drug supply that keeps Florida retirees alive. Definitely not anything that would make American consumers notice or care.
Trump expects Ottawa to concede in the coming weeks. Ottawa expects Trump to forget about this in the coming weeks. They're both probably right. Trade wars have the attention span of a goldfish with ADHD.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately started googling Canadian ETFs. They found one. They bought it. It's down 8% since the announcement. They'll hold it for six months while posting about how they're "playing the volatility" and "buying the dip." The dip will continue dipping.
The real story here is that import restrictions came into force and the S&P moved 0.3%. Not because of the restrictions. Just because it was Tuesday. But some analyst somewhere is writing a twelve-page report connecting Trump's Canada policy to semiconductor valuations, and a pension fund will use it to justify buying more bonds.
Canada's going to concede, sign whatever paper gets shoved across the table, and everyone will pretend it was a historic agreement that changed everything while literally nothing changes except the tariff code paperwork.
Photo by Randy Laybourne on Unsplash
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