Micron reports earnings next week. Jim Cramer wants you to buy it. These two facts have the same predictive value as a coin flip performed by a man who lost both hands in a margin call.
The thesis goes like this: memory supply constraints persist, Micron has leverage, the cycle looks favorable. Breathtaking stuff. Groundbreaking analysis. Next someone will tell you that when demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Alert the economics department at Harvard.
But here comes the real question baked into this headline: how long will this favorable cycle last? Love that. Love asking a question nobody can answer while pretending it's actionable intelligence. Might as well ask how long your marriage will last or whether your kid will get into Yale. The answer is the same. Nobody f*cking knows.
Retail traders will read this headline and think they've stumbled onto alpha. They'll buy Micron at the top of the memory cycle because a guy on television said to. Then they'll watch the stock crater six months later when supply constraints ease and wonder what went wrong. Nothing went wrong. This is exactly what was supposed to happen.
The chart doesn't care about Jim Cramer's opinion. The chart doesn't care about memory constraints. The chart doesn't even know what memory is. The chart just moves based on whether more idiots want to buy than sell, and right now the idiots are loading up because CNBC told them the cycle looks favorable.
Micron could beat earnings by thirty percent and the stock could still drop fifteen percent because someone whispered the word "guidance" in a conference room in Boise. Or it could miss and rip higher because expectations were somehow even lower than the actual results. Earnings are performance art for people who think fundamental analysis matters.
Six stocks to buy. Cramer picked six whole stocks. What happened to the other five is apparently not worth mentioning in this headline, which tells you everything you need to know about how that went.
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