Day Three of Talks. Retail Traders Still Buying Oil Calls.

Iran and Qatari mediators have now talked for three straight days. Three days. Most of you can't hold a position for three hours.

The goal is ending a war between the United States and Iran. The deadline is the Nov. 3 midterm elections, after which analysts fear the fighting could flare up again. Nothing says peace like a countdown clock tied to a ballot.

Qatar is the host. Qatar has a gift for getting people in a room. Rooms are great. Rooms have chairs and water and no missiles. Nobody has ever been hit by a drone in a conference room, which is why diplomats love them.

Now the traders. Somewhere a man named after a cryptocurrency is staring at a crude oil chart and calling the talks "bullish." For what, he can't say. He bought calls on Friday. He will sell the bottom on Tuesday.

Here is my technical analysis. The chart shows a line. The line goes up and down. After the midterms, it will keep doing that. I charge nothing for this. It is worth exactly that.

The headline says talks could fail after Election Day. So the plan is to wait until a vote to decide whether to stop shooting. That is not a ceasefire. That is a rain delay.

Every pundit on television will say "all eyes are on Doha." Their eyes are on the teleprompter. Mine are on a sandwich.

If the talks work, you'll call it priced in. If they fail, you'll call it priced in. You have never once priced in anything except your rent.

Three days of negotiating, and the most productive participant is still the guy refilling the coffee.

Photo by Medad Media on Unsplash