The Dow fell more than 600 points on Friday. Middle East tensions rose. Oil rose with them. Most sectors joined the sell-off, because apparently diversification only works in PowerPoint.
Look at the chart.
The 50-day moving average did not care about the Middle East. The 200-day did not care either. Support levels broke the way support levels always break, which is right after someone on a podcast calls them "rock solid."
Oil rose. Stocks fell. This is the oldest relationship in finance, older than the Dow itself, and every Friday sell-off still gets covered like a plot twist in a prestige drama.
Retail traders will now open their apps. They will stare at red numbers. Some will say "buy the dip." Some will say "sell everything." Both groups will do the opposite at the exact worst moment, a talent so consistent I would call it technical analysis.
Most sectors fell. Not some. Most. Which means a few sectors held up, and somewhere a utilities fund manager is eating a sandwich in total silence, refusing to make eye contact with anyone.
I could explain the geopolitics. I won't. Geopolitics is just weather with generals. The market gets scared on Friday, forgets by Tuesday, and your portfolio absorbs the emotional damage in between.
Six hundred points sounds enormous. It sounds like the end. It is a number on a screen, produced by thousands of algorithms agreeing to be nervous at the same time.
You will check your account over the weekend, even though the market is closed. You will refresh it anyway. Nothing will have changed, and that will still feel like a personal betrayal.
Go outside. The oil will still be expensive, and your stock picks will still be bad.
Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash
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