Brian Sullivan flew to Washington, DC to stand on the sidelines of the Global Energy Forum. Not present at the forum. Not speaking at the forum. On the sidelines. Like a substitute kicker watching the Super Bowl.
The energy insiders discussed oil prices and a possible Iran deal. Two things that have nothing to do with price action. Oil moves because algos decided it should move. Iran could sign a peace treaty with Saudi Arabia and crude would still gap up 4% on a liquidity grab at 2am on a Tuesday.
Here's what actually happened: a bunch of guys in suits sat in a conference room theorizing about geopolitical outcomes while traders in Chicago already priced in seventeen different scenarios, unpriced twelve of them, then went short for no reason. The DC insiders think they're moving markets with their insights. They're not. They're providing content for financial media segments that air at 3pm when nobody's watching.
Sullivan shared his insight from the sidelines. Imagine flying across the country to eavesdrop on conversations and calling it journalism. That's not reporting. That's what your weird uncle does at Thanksgiving when he pretends he knows people at the country club.
The Iran deal discourse is my favorite kind of noise. Retail traders will read this headline, panic-buy USO calls, then watch crude dump 6% when Iran announces nothing, does nothing, and changes nothing. Because the chart said it was going to dump anyway. July crude had a monthly level at $71.20. It was always going to test it. Brian Sullivan's sideline observations won't change that.
Energy insiders in DC don't trade. They theorize. And theories are just expensive ways to lose money while feeling intellectual about it.
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