The August jobs report drops Friday. Economists expect 53,000 new nonfarm payrolls. This number is meaningless but everyone will pretend otherwise.
A subdued labor market keeps the Fed focused on inflation. Translation: they ignored employment data when it was strong and they'll ignore it when it's weak. Consistency at last.
Jobless summer. That's the headline's claim. Fifty-three thousand jobs were added but sure, jobless. The economy added workers while not adding workers. Schrödinger's payroll report.
Retail traders will check their phones Friday at 8:30 AM. They'll see the number. They'll buy or sell based on whether it beats or misses expectations by 10,000 jobs. They'll feel smart for exactly ninety seconds. Then the algos will reverse whatever move happened and they'll be holding bags by lunch.
The Fed watches this report like it matters. It doesn't. They've already decided their next move. They decided it months ago. This report is theater. Jobs beat expectations? Inflation concerns. Jobs miss expectations? Recession concerns. Jobs hit the number exactly? Market manipulation concerns they won't say out loud.
Nonfarm payrolls. Farm payrolls apparently tracked separately because nothing says modern economy like distinguishing between guys who harvest soybeans and guys who answer emails about soybean futures.
Some analyst will go on CNBC Friday and explain what the number means. He'll use the phrase "labor market dynamics" without irony. He'll mention wage growth. He'll talk about participation rates. His tie will cost more than your trading account and his track record will be worse.
The report comes out Friday morning. Markets will move. By Monday everyone will have forgotten the number. By September's report everyone will have forgotten August happened. But sure, trade the noise.
Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash
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