The U.S. economy grew 3.4% last quarter. Economists wanted less. They got more. Somehow this is also a problem.
The Dow Jones consensus expected the personal consumption expenditures price index to rise 0.5% in September, for an annual rate of 3.7%. That is a number someone typed into a spreadsheet, then framed.
Consider the forecaster. A grown adult with a pension and a lanyard. He predicted a monthly inflation figure to the tenth of a percent. Then he waited. Then the number came in, and the entire profession acted wounded, as though a toddler had shown up late to a surprise party for itself.
The economy is hot. Prices are hot. Everything is hot, except your trading account, which is the temperature of a hospital hallway.
Retail traders will now spend the weekend asking whether strong growth is good news or bad news. Strong growth means rate cuts get harder. Hot inflation means rate cuts get harder. Both facts point the same direction, and you will still buy a call option on the opposite one.
Here is what the chart says. Nothing. It says nothing. It never talks to you, and you keep leaving it voicemails.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis spent months measuring every sandwich, haircut, and mortgage payment in America. The result is one number that arrives after the thing it measures has already happened. It is a very expensive obituary.
You will read the headline and feel informed. You are not informed. You are a man holding a weather report from last Tuesday, wearing shorts in a blizzard.
Three point four percent growth. Your brokerage app still sends you confetti when you lose money.
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