The AfD won a state election in Germany. Historic, they're calling it. The party now sits at 28% nationally while the conservatives limp along at 20%. Retail traders are already Googling "how to invest in populism" and landing on expired domain names that sell them commemorative coins.
Let me walk you through what this means for your portfolio. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. German state elections have the same impact on your Tesla calls as the weather in Saskatchewan. But here you are, reading financial news about electoral politics, hoping it'll give you an edge. It won't.
The technical setup is crystal clear. Draw a line from 1933 to today. Now throw your chart in the garbage where it belongs. The 50-day moving average of far-right sentiment just crossed above the 200-day moving average of people pretending to care about democracy. That's called a golden cross in technical analysis. It predicts absolutely f*cking nothing.
Some guy in Stuttgart is loading up on DAX puts because he read this headline on his phone while taking a sh*t. He thinks political instability creates alpha. It doesn't. It creates volume for his broker and a tax loss for April. The conservatives dropped to 20% and he's convinced this matters for his three shares of Volkswagen. It doesn't matter. Nothing matters.
The party polls at 28% and every dipsh*t with a Robinhood account thinks they can trade around it. They can't. They'll buy the euro because they think it'll weaken. It might. It might not. Either way, they'll be wrong about why.
Germany elected some nationalists and your stop loss still got triggered this morning because you set it exactly where everyone else did.
Photo by Maheshkumar Painam on Unsplash
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