Goldman Sachs just boosted its target for the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index. The big reason? Taiwan and Korea might make more money. That's it. That's the entire headline.
Someone at Goldman ran a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet said earnings go up. So the target goes up. Revolutionary stuff. They probably billed eight hundred hours for this insight.
Here's what happened in your portfolio: nothing. Taiwan didn't suddenly invent a new semiconductor. Korea didn't cure cancer. Goldman just changed a number in a PDF that seventeen people will read. But you'll see this headline and think you need to do something. You don't.
The index doesn't care about Goldman's target. The index doesn't read Goldman research. The index is going wherever it was already going before some analyst decided Taiwan looks good this quarter. But retail traders will panic-buy ETFs at the top because a bank that needed a taxpayer bailout said things might go up.
This is technical analysis in reverse. Instead of drawing lines on charts, you're drawing lines on forecasts. Both are equally useless. Both involve pretending you can predict the future by staring at the past. At least with charts you get pretty colors.
Goldman raised a forecast. Not a price. Not a guarantee. A forecast. Which means in six months when Taiwan and Korea do whatever the f*ck they want regardless of what Goldman thinks, the bank will issue a new forecast. And you'll read that headline too. And you'll still be holding bags wondering why the magic number didn't make you rich.
The MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index has the best name in finance because it sounds like someone gave up halfway through.
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