Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs published research explaining that consumer sentiment sucks because people are unhappy. Groundbreaking stuff. The kind of analysis that justifies a seven-figure salary and a corner office in lower Manhattan.
The economy chugs along. Jobs exist. GDP grows. Inflation cooled. None of it matters because Americans feel like shit anyway. Briggs calls this "lower happiness" which is the most Goldman way possible to describe existential dread without saying the word existential.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately checked their portfolios to see if happiness is a tradable commodity. It's not. They lost money anyway.
Here's the thing about consumer sentiment. It measures how people feel about the economy. Not the actual economy. Just vibes. Goldman spent resources figuring out that vibes are bad because broader pessimism exists in society. They needed an economist for this. Someone with a degree. Multiple degrees probably.
The solid economy keeps solidifying. Consumers keep feeling like garbage. These two facts coexist and apparently require explanation from investment banks. Briggs provided that explanation. People are sad. Mystery solved.
Every chart-humping day trader who bought calls based on strong economic data just learned that numbers don't matter if Karen from Michigan feels bummed out about her life. Technical analysis can't save you from the national mood. Neither can fundamental analysis. Or any analysis.
Goldman will continue monitoring happiness levels. They'll publish more research. Issue more reports. Explain more obvious things using complicated language. And retail traders will keep reading those reports, nodding along, pretending economic commentary from investment banks ever helped them make a single profitable trade.
Turns out you can't chart your way out of generalized malaise, but watching people try never gets old.
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