Home Depot crushed earnings expectations in a frozen housing market. Read that again. The company sells hammers and overpriced lumber to people who are supposedly not buying houses or fixing the ones they own. Revenue beat. Profit beat. Stock goes up.
This is what passes for logic in 2024. Nobody can afford a mortgage at 7% but apparently everyone needs a new deck. The housing market sits in a coma but Home Depot moves product like it's 2019. Reaffirmed guidance. Full year outlook intact. Everything is fine.
Retail traders saw the earnings beat and bought calls at open. They read "frozen housing market conditions" and thought that sounded temporary. Like winter. Or a yogurt recall. They have never considered that frozen might be the new normal. That houses might stay expensive and mortgages might stay punishing and Home Depot might keep selling you a $47 socket wrench while you rent until you die.
The technical picture doesn't care about your housing dreams. Chart shows higher lows since March. Volume confirms the move. RSI sits neutral. MACD crossed bullish two weeks ago. None of this has anything to do with whether Americans can buy homes. The stock moves on its own truth. You move on copium and CNBC soundbites.
Here's what happened: Home Depot printed money in a dead market and you still think fundamentals matter. You read the headline about frozen conditions and assumed that meant the stock should drop. It didn't. It won't. The market does not reward your ability to read headlines. It rewards position and timing. You have neither.
The guidance got reaffirmed while you reaffirmed your Robinhood password for the third time this month.
Photo by Marques Thomas on Unsplash
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