Cocoa and sugar are up. Candy inflation is running above average. Hershey may feel the pinch.
Feel the pinch. Like a grandmother at a cheek-pinching convention. Except the cheeks are shareholders and the grandmother is a commodities futures curve.
Hershey makes chocolate. Chocolate needs cocoa. Cocoa costs more. This is the entire thesis. A raccoon could trade it. Several retail traders already have, and the raccoon did better.
Here is what the headline wants you to do. Buy or sell a candy company based on the price of a bean. You will check the chart. You will draw a line. The line will say what you hoped it would say. Lines are agreeable like that.
Meanwhile, parents face the real crisis. A fun-size bar is no longer fun-sized. It is now a rumor of a bar. You are paying more for less, and the less is mostly air and regret.
Will Halloween be canceled? No. Children do not read earnings reports. They will still arrive at your door dressed as whatever Netflix told them to be, and they will still demand tribute.
Your move is simple. Buy the cheap stuff. Hand out pretzels. Let the children learn about inflation the way you did, through disappointment and a mild sense of betrayal.
As for you, the person about to buy Hershey stock because of a seasonal news story, relax. The candy corn will be stale by Monday. Your portfolio will take a little longer.
Photo by Janne Simoes on Unsplash
Leave a Comment