The markets get a holiday-shortened week. Retail traders get inflation data. One of these groups will pretend the second thing matters.
Inflation numbers drop this week and everyone will act like they mean something. They don't. The CPI could come in at 2.1% or 4.7% and your portfolio will still do whatever it was going to do anyway. But watch CNBC spend forty-seven hours discussing whether the Fed will move rates by a quarter point in six months. Thrilling stuff. Really moves the needle on your $3,200 Robinhood account.
Apple has a new CEO apparently. His first big test arrives this week. Know what that test is? Not f*cking up a company that prints money while people sleep. The bar sits on the ground. Step over it and collect your $200 million compensation package. Fail to step over it and collect your $180 million severance package. Real high stakes drama.
Here's what actually happens this week. Algorithms trade against other algorithms. Market makers collect spread. Institutional money repositions based on models that haven't changed since June. And some guy named Derek in Michigan watches his tech calls expire worthless while refreshing a Bloomberg terminal he can't afford.
The "holiday-shortened" part is my favorite detail. As if markets being closed Monday changes anything about Tuesday through Friday. The same people who think they can time the market based on PCE data also think volume patterns matter more when there's been a three-day weekend. These people vote.
Three big things to watch. Translation: three reasons for financial media to fill airtime between pharmaceutical commercials. The only thing getting inflated this week is the importance of information that will be completely irrelevant by Friday afternoon.
But sure, set your alarm for the CPI print. Watch futures react for ninety seconds. Convince yourself you learned something. Then check your account Friday and wonder why knowing the inflation number didn't stop you from being poor.
Photo by ASIA CULTURECENTER on Unsplash
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