Mattel sells plastic dolls. Has been doing this since 1945. The dolls are not selling as well as they used to. A major investor noticed.
This counts as news because somewhere in Connecticut, a guy named Brad who owns twelve shares in his Robinhood account just learned that companies need to make money. Brad thought the Barbie movie meant infinite cash forever. Brad does not understand how movies work. Brad also does not understand that Ryan Gosling cannot personally save a toy company's balance sheet by wearing a pink vest.
The investor wants Mattel to consider a sale. That's Wall Street speak for "please find someone dumber with more money." Growth is stagnating, which means last quarter looked like this quarter, which will look like next quarter. Flat is the new down. Down is the new bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is still bankruptcy.
Here's what happens next. Mattel's board will hire McKinsey for eight million dollars. McKinsey will spend four months building a PowerPoint that says "have you tried selling the company?" The board will leak this to the press. The stock will jump three percent. Retail traders will pile in. The sale will not happen. The stock will fall six percent. Retail traders will write angry posts about market manipulation.
None of this matters for technical analysis. The 50-day moving average does not care about Barbie. The RSI does not care about Ken. The MACD does not care that some activist investor read a Bloomberg terminal and decided to send a strongly worded letter. The chart said sell at $18.50 in March. You didn't listen. You were thinking about movies.
Mattel's problem is simple. Kids want iPads, not dolls. Adults want mortgages they can afford, not nostalgia in a cardboard box. The solution is even simpler. Sell to a private equity firm that will load it with debt, fire everyone, and sell the brand to Hasbro for parts in three years.
Brad will still be holding at a loss, wondering why Margot Robbie didn't fix capitalism.
Photo by Elena Mishlanova on Unsplash
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